Before reading the article:
What have you heard or read about recent outbreaks of measles in the United States? Has there been an outbreak near where you live?
Have a look at the interactive “Where Every Measles Case Has Been Reported This Year.” Can you identify any patterns to the outbreaks? Can the map help make predictions about future outbreaks?
Now, read the article, “Where Will Measles Break Out Next? Chicago, Los Angeles or Miami, Scientists Predict,” and answer the following questions:
1. According to the new study, which U.S. county is likeliest to experience a measles outbreak? What 10 cities are more likely to experience an outbreak than other cities?
2. How did researchers assess the risk? What factors did they take into consideration?
3. Why did the team focus on counties that have international airports? Of these airports, which were given more weight? Why?
4. Why did both the new study and one conducted last year fail to identify the location of the country’s largest measles outbreak? Where did that outbreak occur and where was it predicted to happen?
5. How accurate was a similar study published last June in PLOS Medicine in ranking the risk of measles outbreaks in states that allow philosophical or personal belief exemptions to vaccination? Why was New York omitted from that study?
Finally, tell us more about what you think:
The article mentions that according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in the past five years, 75 percent of measles cases have occurred in “tight-knit communities.”
What are some of the communities the article identified? What are some factors that could explain why measles outbreaks have occurred among the groups? What, if anything, do you think should be or could be done to share information about vaccinations with members of those communities? Why do you say that?
Related: Our Student Opinion question from March 2019, Should All Children Be Vaccinated?
